The last day of the first phase of 21-day-long national lockdown proved to be a significant landmark for India’s coronavirus containment efforts with the single largest growth in positive cases registered within a day amid a glimmer of hope from states like Goa and Kerala where active Covid-19 cases remained less than the number of recoveries. Jammu and Kashmir on Tuesday also reported more recoveries than positive cases.
Image Source: TOI
Prime Minister Modi made it clear that India was not out of the woods yet for anyone to hope for business as usual, which he said could only be allowed to resume post April 20, that too in a graded manner after establishing beyond doubt that it did not pose the threat of a rise in Covid-19 infections.
However, the Prime Minister made it clear that the partial exemptions would be reversed “immediately” for non-compliance noticed by the authorities. Permission will be withdrawn immediately if lockdown rules are breached and there is a risk of spread of coronavirus.
The prime minister acknowledged the huge economic cost and suffering to people due to the lockdown but reminded all that it was still the right path if the country hoped to avoid the horror seen unfolding in many countries.
Economy Expert’s Take on Lockdown-II (15 Apr-3 May 2020)
Pronab Sen says, "At the moment, it is a supply-side problem. Both production and distribution of non-essentials have come to a halt. This affects at least 55% of the economy for three weeks or about Rs 2 lakh crore. It may even be larger due to previous partial lockdowns by various state governments.
Rangarajan says, "The impact of lockdown will be felt through several channels, weakening of domestic demand, disruption in supply chain and disruption in financial market. All of this would result in declining production and retrenchment of employees."
How serious could the impact be on GDP?
Sen says, "In FY20, we would be lucky if the growth rate is 3.5% (full fiscal). It would be a very different scenario for FY21. In the first half, we would be lucky if the growth rate is zero. In the second half, the growth could revive by as much as 7%, taking the average growth for the year to 3.5%."
Rangarajan is more optimistic. He says, "The growth rate in FY20 may decline by 0.5% (from 5% that the NSO's first advance estimate says). In Q1 of FY21, the growth rate will be negative. I don't know what would happen in Q2 and Q3 but my best estimate for the entire fiscal would be 4%."
The brokerage Barclays said in a note earlier that the three-week lockdown would likely to have an economic cost of USD 120 billion which is now estimated to balloon up to USD 234.4 billion. It was earlier expecting India to clock a 2.5 per cent growth in calendar 2020, which has now been projected to be zero, while the FY21 growth has been revised down to 0.8 per cent from the 3.5 per cent earlier. because of extension of the nationwide lockdown till May 3.
The IMF sees India’s FY20 growth at 4.2%, down from 4.8% and for FY21 to 1.9% from 5.8% estimated in January, warning that the “worst recession since the Great Depression” will dwarf the economic damage caused by the global financial crisis a decade back.
Medical Expert’s Take on Lockdown-I (25 Mar-14 Apr 2020)
"We have made gains in these 21 days, I think it was a bold step (the first lockdown) and the situation demanded it. Our lockdown came much early compared to say in the US or Italy or other European countries, and you can see the number of cases in those countries, and compare it with ours," Dr Arvind Kumar, a noted lung surgeon at the Sir Ganga Ram Hospital, told.
Dr. Rajesh Chawla, pulmonologist at Apollo Hospital, said the number of cases has risen in the past several days and it will increase even more now. “But, the 21-day lockdown allowed the government and other stakeholders to prepare themselves to face the surge.People learned social distancing, sneezing etiquettes, and that helps in decelerating the spread of the virus," he said. Chawla, however, said the virus spread can only be slowed down and the infection cannot be stopped till "we find a vaccine".
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